Price’s Derby Preview
Dear Friends, Revelers, Celebrators of all things Lovely on this First Friday in May-
I’m still not sure how the 152nd Kentucky Derby is back upon us! Admittedly there were many moments this winter when I didn’t know if this day would come, let alone if the kids would go back to school! But as it has 151 times previous, it is finally here…and the kids will get to stay in school a bit longer this year, just what everyone wanted!
It was a cold and long winter in the Bluegrass state, but it is somewhat well in the rear view now as the crocus’s and daisies have given way to the peonies and irises. We have been very blessed at Mill Ridge to welcome nearly 70 foals this year, and while certainly many testing moments along the way, it has been a most blessed foaling and breeding season.
We have been looking forward to this weekend all spring as horses from Mill Ridge have been really running well. It is an absolute dream to have a horse run on this weekend, amongst the hundreds of thousands of fans that will come together to cheers, celebrate, and make memories. We have been blessed with raising EIGHT runners on the day and FIVE in stakes races! In addition Oscar Performance has two outstanding runners (Storm’s Wake and Dashman) on the weekend! The hope has built like a crescendo for weeks, and now the time is here to marvel at their talent under the twin spires!
Counting Stars as a foal at Mill Ridge (March 2023)
Test Score as a foal at Mill Ridge (June 2022)
If you have read these musings in the past you will know they are more geared to what we are rooting for over the two days…so by the time we sing My Old Kentucky Home at 6:40pm Saturday afternoon, it will have been an incredible weekend for our horses, just having made a start…let alone a win or two (is that greedy?!) along the way!! Of our chances Friday I think Leinani, Storm’s Wake (Oscar Performance), and Counting Stars are all live on Friday…Time to Dream, maybe, but is coming off a layoff and may be big ask. On Saturday Stark Contrast and Test Score are very live…both owned by longtime friends and clients the Amerman family. It would be an amazing compliment to their program if they were to sweep the turf Grade 1s on Saturday!
Stark Contrast as a foal at Mill Ridge (March 2023)
Time to Dream as a foal at Mill Ridge (April 2023)
So…onto what likely brought you to this riff, and that being the 152nd Kentucky Derby! I think it’s a pretty fascinating race this year because I think it is wide open. There are horses who were breathtaking in their last races, Further Ado and Renegade in particular, those who only won by a nose, Emerging Market & Commandment, and those who only lost by a nose, The Puma & Pavlovian, who will be looking to turn the tide.
A favorite storyline would be the Mott family with trainer Bill having won his first Derby (really second but his first was on a DQ) last year with Sovereignty and his son Riley, who is also an awesome trainer and person. Riley has two very live chances in Albus and Incredibolt…maybe a hunch play for the Potter fans amongst us?!
Another story I am rooting for would be Mark Glatt who tragically lost his wife and partner for decades just a few weeks ago. Mark is a quiet, kind, and wonderful trainer and So Happy is in with a real chance. So Happy was also bred by friends and is a thoroughbred family they have nurtured for 50 years!
I am going to put a few dollars on EMERGING MARKET as my main horse. He will be the first winner of the Derby to come in with only two prior races…but the way we won the Louisiana Derby was very impressive. He had a difficult trip and never gave up. Chad Brown’s horses tend to get better with time and he has the services of the top rider in the country Flavien Prat, who I believe has run in the money every year for the past several. To watch Chad’s demeanor this week he is very loose and quietly confident…which gives me confidence that he really likes his chances. I think the race will setup well for Emerging Market being outside and think he is fit enough to make a move around the turn and go get the leaders.
There will likely be a lot of speed, set by Albus and So Happy. I think THE PUMA is really interesting and would love for our friend Ramiro and the Delgado family to have another chance to hoist the trophy…having done it with Mage a few years back. THE PUMA will sit closer to the pace and likely get a first jump on the tiring pacesetters…whether he can hold on will be fun to watch and I expect him to be in the mix.
I think CHIEF WALLABEE is very interesting. He has run fast numbers on our insider figures (Ragozin), and may be overlooked. He seems to always try and maybe this is his chance to turn the tide on Commandment.
How can I knock COMMANDMENT?! I certainly won’t…I think he has drawn very well and has won 4 of 5 races! I think jockey Luis Saez will suit him well and get him more into the race. I would love to see him win for Case Clay and Olly Tait who have done a masterful job building an elite program for the royal family of Qatar. It’s hard to read with jockeys swapping off of COMMANDMENT (Flavien Prat and Irad Ortiz both have won on him), but Saez is very good and a real chance to make them regret.
To land the ship…the last time I counted trainer Bob Baffert out he won, although later DQ’ed with Medina Spirit…I don’t know if there is a winner for the Baffert barn, but you will get a good price at the window and the winningest trainer of the race, so might be worth a gamble?
It should be an amazing race with beautiful stories and horses to celebrate the greatest springtime tradition!! Best wishes and we look forward to seeing you on the farm!
**a quick note for the KY Oaks…our friend (and cousin) Gatewood bought Percy’s Bar for his syndicate Hat Creek Racing. I would love nothing more than for the Hat Creek team to wear the lilies and bring home the Kentucky Oaks…so if you can stay awake for 8:40pm tonight pull for Percy’s Bar…and Counting Stars to deadheat!
Sincerely,
Price
