Price’s Kentucky Derby 151 Preview

YEE-HAWWWW! It’s that time of year again. Time to dust off the hat, get out the flair, and get ready for the 151st running of the KENTUCKY DERBY!! We have been so blessed at Mill Ridge to have had a wonderful spring. We have welcomed nearly 90 foals this year and maybe, just maybe could have our 40th individual Grade 1 winner since 2000 this weekend with TEST SCORE! Be sure to watch Test Sore (post position 5) in the American Turf (9th race at 4:06 EDT) on Derby Day!

If you recall, this weekend last year was an absolute banner/dream/pinnacle year for the farm. Not only did we enjoy Derby week with Derby-runner ENDLESSLY and team Michael McCarthy, we found ourselves in the winner’s circle on Derby Day not once, but TWICE! TRIKARI (pronounced Trickery) in the American Turf and SEIZE THE GREY in the G2 Pat Day Mile, which amazingly sent him on to the PREAKNESS where he won the second jewel of the Triple Crown!

The experience last year was just an absolute fantasy. My head returns to the clouds when I think about it now. I mean two winner’s circles and a Derby walkover?! Unbelievable.

This year, the weekend has already started off on a high with Mill Ridge raised RAGING SEA winning the Grade 1 La Troienne on the Oaks Day undercard. LET’S GO!!!

Raging Sea wins the G1 La Troienne on Oaks Day 2025

If you have read this note before, you are aware that it is my biased filtering of the day, with several interjections of what I hope happens, and who I hope wins. I do my best to maintain some objectivity, but alas I am a poor handicapper because I bet with my heart and not my sense. Or, even worse, my heart convinces my sense that it will win. When the heart does win out, it makes it all the sweeter. When it misses, ah we move onto the next!

This year’s Derby is going to be awesome! It’s the return of Bob Baffert, the trainer who has campaigned more Derby winners than anybody. He is an absolutely brilliant trainer, who in 2021 flew a little too close to the sun and was applying a skin cream to Medina Spirit that contained a banned substance. Medina Spirit tested positive and Baffert was suspended from the race for three years. He served his time and is back now with one loaded chance. Baffert brings CITIZEN BULL, last year’s two-year-old champion to the dance, and this rocket ship will be jumping from the first position and will be setting the pace as the run for the roses thunders down the stretch the first time around.

Citizen Bull is a fantastic horse. He was last year’s champion, but he has drawn the “impossible” 1 post. “Impossible” only because no horse has ever won the Derby from the 1 post position since Ferdinand in 1986, but that doesn’t mean it can’t BE done, but likely won’t be done this year. What Citizen Bull’s post position and running style will ensure is a fast pace.

So what is going to happen? What’s the rain going to do? How will the race set up?! Show me the money!

When the rain comes, anything can happen. Some horses like the slop, and others don’t. Who likes the slop? In reality, we will find out during the race! What a game! I feel confident that Citizen Bull goes to the front and is joined by East Avenue, who I like as a long shot. From the outside Coal Battle and Owen Almighty will all be rolling to get to the lead.

I think this will set up very well for the next flight of horses, saving ground, and settling in. I think we will find Journalism (my pick), Publisher, Tiztastic, and maybe the Japanese star Luxor Café (longshot with a chance) in his second flight. In the back, I think Sovereignty,  and Burnham Square are the live shots to come from behind.

I think around the turn Citizen Bull and Owen Almighty start to get a little fatigued and the second flight starts to make a move. To me, this is where Journalism separates himself and we could see a performance as brilliant as Barbaro. Journalism is just a superstar. He is so athletic, so beautiful, and just an absolutely amazing horse. I hope he rolls home and we admire the brilliance that he is capable of achieving.

With Journalism I am going to include the following in my wagering:

Luxor Café (loves the slop and looks amazing)

Burnham Square (all racehorse, super tough, and loves to finish)

Publisher (would love to see him win for the connections; he has a big chance for an improving horse)

Sovereignty (when I saw him run the first time, I thought he was the Derby winner; he has done little wrong since then, but I hadn’t seen Journalism)

Best of luck to you and your wagering! Cannot wait to see how the 151st plays out!

And, a bit of news from the farm, we’re proud to announce the Mill Ridge Club, a new experience for those who want to go behind the scenes with us. We want you to experience the industry up close and personal, the way we do. If you’re interested, check it out here, and join the waitlist. We look forward to sharing more of our farm, family, and business with you very soon!